Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Apocalypse Now: Greek Edition

Andrew Lilico over at The Telegraph (UK) takes a look at the exciting cascade of events that might transpire were Greece to default on her debts.  Some highlights (or lowlights as the case may be):
  • Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
  • The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
  • The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
  • To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets, Argentina-2002-style (when the Argentinian president had to flee by helicopter from the roof of the presidential palace to evade a mob of such depositors), the Greek government will declare a curfew, perhaps even general martial law.
  • Greece will redenominate all its debts into “New Drachmas” or whatever it calls the new currency (this is a classic ploy of countries defaulting)
  • The New Drachma will devalue by some 30-70 per cent (probably around 50 per cent, though perhaps more), effectively defaulting 0n 50 per cent or more of all Greek euro-denominated debts.
Other countries in the Eurozone will watch carefully as these events transpire.  What they do will depend on what France and Germany do to recapitalize their own banks after the bond collapse.  Spain and Portugal will pay particularly close attention to what happens in Greece.

Then the UK will look to the Eurozone to determine what to do with the Pound.

"May you live in interesting times indeed!"

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